Cover 7 | Thursday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Thursday, Mike Sando examines an emerging storyline around NFL quarterbacking.
Forgive the Dak Prescott reference in the headline so shortly after San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy outclassed his Dallas Cowboys counterpart in a 42-10 victory Sunday night. There is purpose behind the provocation.
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Purdy, who tossed four touchdown passes against the Cowboys, is by any measure playing better than Prescott.
The 49ers’ 10-0 record and 18-point average victory margin with Purdy in the lineup since last season have shifted the discussion from whether Purdy is good to exactly how good he is, and what he might become. Purdy, the last player selected in the 2022 draft, could become another Joe Montana or Tom Brady for all anyone knows.
The Prescott comparison is offered not as a buzzkill, but because the first 10 games of Prescott’s Cowboys career are the closest thing the NFL has seen to the fairytale unfolding in Santa Clara, Calif., home of the 5-0 49ers. There are other strikingly relevant comparison points.
Seven years ago, Prescott was 9-1 as the Cowboys’ starter, with numbers nearly identical to the ones Purdy has produced through 10 starts.
Analysts resisted giving Prescott too much credit then because the situation around him was so favorable. That Dallas offense featured four Associated Press First-Team All-Pro selections, including the NFL’s leading rusher. Purdy is similarly in an almost-too-good-to-be-true situation, the perfect environment for him to succeed and for his achievements to be discounted.
Before this analysis is complete, we will lay out what defensive coaches say Purdy has done so well, what Purdy has yet to prove and, through some NFL myth busting, why the 49ers could capture a sixth Lombardi Trophy this season even if the unproven part remains a question mark. First, we stack the production through 10 starts for Purdy’s closest 10-game comp.
Purdy vs. Prescott: First 10 Starts
| QB | Purdy | Prescott |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 10-0 | 9-1 |
Cmp% | 70% | 68% |
Yds/Att | 9.1 | 8.4 |
TD-INT | 20-2 | 17-2 |
Rating | 121.1 | 108.6 |
EPA/Pass Play | 0.32 | 0.31 |
16+ Yd Cmp | 52 | 52 |
Sacked | 16 | 14 |
YAC % | 48% | 44% |
Tm OFF EPA/Pl | 0.15 | 0.15 |
Tm OFF PPG | 33.5 | 28.5 |
The Cowboys selected Prescott in the fourth round of the 2016 draft after trying (but failing) to trade up in the first round for another quarterback, Paxton Lynch, whose career busted.
The 49ers succeeded in trading up to select quarterback Trey Lance with the third pick of the 2021 draft. That move backfired, leading them to Purdy almost by accident.
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Though both teams lucked into the right guy, both quarterbacks lucked into favorable situations.
The production of Purdy and Prescott through 10 starts is similar down to the last detail. Since 2000, only two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes averaged greater EPA per pass play through 10 starts than Purdy and Prescott, according to TruMedia.
Purdy evaluations typically reference 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan’s expert play design and play calling, plus the presence of offensive teammates Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. San Francisco’s strong defense gives Purdy an additional edge that Prescott did not enjoy early in his career.
Prescott in his first 10 starts had three All-Pro offensive linemen and the NFL’s leading rusher in Ezekiel Elliott, to go with inviting veteran targets at receiver (Dez Bryant) and tight end (Jason Witten).
What NFL coaches and executives were saying about Prescott during his 9-1 start mirrors some of the conversation surrounding Purdy now.
“We all might have underestimated the intangibles,” one exec said of Prescott in October 2016. “But the other factor in that is the team he is on and how they play and who is around him — the offensive line, his tight end and receivers and the way they can run the ball. All those things have made this the perfect spot for him that way. That is not diminishing what he has done.”
What Purdy does well
Defensive coaches see in Purdy a quarterback able to find open receivers quickly because of his ability to race through progressions. They credit Shanahan for scheming players open as well as anyone, giving Purdy open targets on most plays. They credit Purdy for making the right decisions quickly most of the time, for handling presnap motions and shifts, and for reading defenses better than predecessor Jimmy Garoppolo read them.
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“Brock knows how to read stuff, and he can work through the progression fast,” one opposing coach said. “Against Pittsburgh, Kyle dials up a Cover 2 beater, Brock sees the safety start to roll to the post, and he doesn’t even look over there to the Cover 2 beater. He gets it in McCaffrey’s hands now. That is why Purdy is perfect for what Kyle wants to do, and with the skill they have, that is an effective combination.”
Citing examples such as these, opposing coaches think Purdy has helped expand the playbook for Shanahan, leading to some more aggressive calls. The team has nonetheless leaned heavier toward the run in neutral situations — early downs, early in games — with Purdy behind center than when Garoppolo was there. Shanahan leaned heaviest toward the pass when Matt Schaub (Houston) and Matt Ryan (Atlanta) were his quarterbacks.
There is nothing spectacular about Purdy from a physical standpoint by NFL standards. He is proof that knowing how to play the position (46 starts at Iowa State), being able to process information quickly and possessing sufficient accuracy can make a less physically gifted player shine in a favorable situation. Purdy’s quick decision-making allows him to throw with anticipation, which helps in the absence of superior arm strength.
Purdy is not simply completing short passes to teammates who do most of the work. While the 49ers’ pass catchers do excel with the ball in their hands, Purdy ranks 21st among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in yards after catch as a percentage of passing yards. He ranks near average in air yards per attempt.
Purdy leads the league in EPA per pass play overall and also on passes traveling more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. He has completed 18 of 26 (69 percent) of these longer throws with four touchdowns and no interceptions. None of the other 32 qualifying passers has completed more of these deeper passes or a higher percentage of them than Purdy through Week 5. Purdy has completed most of these (12) without play-action, which the 49ers use at league-average rates.
“When you watch the kid play right now, you can’t deny that he is playing really well,” a defensive coach who faced Purdy this season said. “He is better than you think, probably an upgrade over Garoppolo, with a coach in Kyle Shanahan who does a helluva job calling plays and keeping him out of bad situations.”
The table above, created by Arjun Menon of Pro Football Focus, shows the 49ers’ offense leading the league by a wide margin in percentage of pass plays when the opposing defense suffered from apparent coverage lapses. This could reflect superior offensive design by San Francisco, leading to coverage busts by opponents and wide-open receivers.
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“Kyle does such a good job of pulling apart quarters and quarter-quarter-half coverages that Purdy can throw the ball on time,” one of the defensive coaches said. “You will see Purdy, he will crow hop, he will get the ball out there. It’s not always pretty, but there are a lot of layups.”
What Purdy has not yet proven
Partly because Purdy has played well, but also because San Francisco is so strong overall, Purdy has attempted only five passes all season while the 49ers trailed on the scoreboard. Kirk Cousins, the Minnesota Vikings quarterback Shanahan tried to acquire from Washington years ago, has attempted 161 passes while trailing.
That massive difference — 3.7 percent of passes while trailing for Purdy, compared to 79 percent for Cousins — reflects differing degrees of difficulty for two players graded similarly this season by Pro Football Focus.
“Garoppolo was good until he had to come from behind,” a defensive coordinator said. “When he had to throw and people could tee off on him and mix coverages and the run game wasn’t a factor in how he was throwing the ball, then all of a sudden, it was, ‘Oh s—.’ The jury is still out (on Purdy in this area).”
Purdy’s limited experience leading two-minute drives in fourth quarters is another reason some are withholding their full endorsement.
“Purdy can handle all the motions and shifts — that’s what he does,” one of the defensive coaches said. “It’s only going to be driving the ball into a window when he has to have it. In their playoff game last year, Dallas moved him off the spot and he couldn’t just drive it into windows. He made good decisions, threw it away and kicked the field goal, and that is how they were able to beat Dallas (19-12). That was as close as anybody has played him.”
Purdy and the 49ers moved 52 yards in seven plays over the final one minute 11 seconds of regulation with the score tied against the Las Vegas Raiders last season, only to miss a field-goal try. Purdy led end-of-half touchdown drives against Miami and Tampa Bay last season, and against Arizona this season.
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“When he gets into a pure two-minute, it’ll be interesting to see because of the arm strength,” another defensive coach said. “It’s average, at best, and he has to be able to move into it to get the ball down the field. It will be interesting to see if he is able to drive it down the field when the defense can pin its ears back and go get him because there haven’t been many of those opportunities yet.”
Why the 49ers can win it all anyway
Two years ago, I wrote about the myth of the game-winning drive, which pointed out the low win rates, regardless of who is playing quarterback, for teams taking over late in regulation while trailing.
The last 10 Super Bowl winners combined to play 33 playoff games in their championship seasons.
Never in those 33 games did the eventual Super Bowl champion take over possession in the final two minutes of a fourth quarter while needing a touchdown (trailing by 4-8 points).
Never in those 33 games did the eventual Super Bowl champ take over possession in the final three minutes of a fourth quarter while needing a field goal (trailing by 1-3 points).
Only three times in these 33 games did an eventual Super Bowl champ take over in the final seven minutes of regulation while needing a touchdown to tie or take the lead.
Only four times in these 33 games did an eventual Super Bowl champ take over possession in the final two minutes of a fourth quarter with the score tied (these teams made field-goal tries twice in these four chances).
Teams that lost Super Bowls encountered some of these situations. That included the 2017 Brady-led New England Patriots against Philadelphia, the 2019 Garoppolo-led 49ers against Kansas City and the 2021 Joe Burrow-led Cincinnati Bengals against the Rams. Low-odds situations, even for Brady and Burrow.
This history suggests the 49ers might not need Purdy to prove himself further in two-minute situations to claim the sixth Super Bowl victory in franchise history. San Francisco is more apt to find itself trailing earlier in games, which will present challenges the Purdy-led 49ers have seldom faced, but will carry less urgency than end-of-game deficits.
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If the 49ers reach the playoffs with Purdy and lose, it will probably be because they face a better team. There’s a good chance that team might have a better quarterback — Patrick Mahomes comes to mind. No one is saying Purdy belongs with Mahomes and others in the NFL’s top tier of quarterbacks, but he has shown enough to escape the border between Tiers 3 and 4, which is where 50 coaches and evaluators placed him entering the season, when most thought there wasn’t enough evidence for any evaluation at all.
“Yeah, he probably is a Tier 3 in most situations, but right now, in this situation, he is playing like a Tier 2,” a defensive coordinator said. “If you play like a Tier 2, you are a Tier 2. Is Jalen Hurts a Tier 1.5 without A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert? Probably not.”
(Photo: Mark Owens / Getty Images)
The Football 100, the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here.
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